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MD3: Weather as an Energy Systems Driver

Weather is a strong external driver of integrated energy systems that simultaneously impacts the demand-side, energy transmission capability, and the supply-side (Rübbelke and Vögele, 2011). Temperature and wind affect energy demand for heating/cooling. Cloud cover affects demand for lighting. The weather also drives Renewable Energy (RE) generation (wind and solar PV in particular). Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used with local conditions and turbine power curves to produce deterministic or probabilistic wind energy forecasts (Jung and Broadwater 2014, Courtney et al. 2013). PV power forecasting uses NWP, satellite imagery and irradiance sensors (Holmgren et al. 2014). On the transmission side, thermal cooling capability of overhead electricity transmission lines is subject to highly localised weather conditions. Extreme events can impact other systems. Extreme precipitation produces floodwater which can stress pumping stations, leading to combined sewer overflows. Conversely, drought conditions can reduce hydroelectric power generation. We are not aware of a single model that combines predictions of wind and PV generation with energy demand at a high spatio-temporal resolution.

 

This WP will use high-resolution NWP models allowing better representation of important small scales in space (e.g. topography, site exposure, aspect) and time (e.g. fluctuations and extreme events). Output will be statistically post-processed (Sweeney et al., 2013) to identify links with energy system data. A model will be developed that systematically integrates NWP data with spatially resolved energy data to simultaneously forecast RE energy supply and weather-driven demand. The model will predict the supply and demand response of the energy system to atmospheric changes such as heat waves, cold spells, blocking highs and storms, with a prediction period from hours to days ahead. The model will additionally warn of weather-related impacts for energy systems infrastructure such as pumping stations.

 

Research Blog: http://metclim.ucd.ie/

 

Members


Professor Frank McDermott
Co-Principal Investigator, Professor, Head of UCD School of Earth Sciences
Frank.mcdermott@ucd.ie
01 716 2331
Dr Conor Sweeney
Funded Investigator, Lecturer in Applied and Computational Mathematics, University College Dublin
conor.sweeney@ucd.ie
(01) 716 2358
Seanie Griffin
PhD Researcher
seanie.griffin@ucdconnect.ie
Eadaoin Doddy
PhD Researcher
eadaoin.doddy@ucdconnect.ie
Dr Laura Cooke
Postdoctoral Researcher
laura.cooke@ucd.ie

Research Outputs


Journal

The future of forecasting for renewable energy

2019; Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment; Conor Sweeney, Ricardo J. Bessa, Jethro Browell, Pierre Pinson

DOI

Conference

An investigation of dynamic selection of WRF PBL schemes for renewable energy forecasting in Ireland

2019; 6th International Conference Energy & Meteorology (ICEM 2019), Denmark; Seanie Griffin, Frank McDermott, Conor Sweeney

Conference

Spatial variability of incident solar radiation in Ireland and the UK linked to large-scale atmospheric pressure patterns: implications for solar energy generation.

2019; 6th International Conference Energy & Meteorology (ICEM 2019), Denmark; Joao Corriera, Conor Seeney, Frank McDermott

Conference

A multivariate spatial post-processing method for renewable energy forecasts

2019; 6th International Conference Energy & Meteorology (ICEM 2019), Denmark; Eadaoin Doddy, Frank McDermott, Conor Sweeney

Conference

A multivariate spatial post-processing method for day-ahead wind energy forecasts

2019; Wind Energy Science Conference 2019, Ireland; Eadaoin Doddy, Frank McDermott, Conor Sweeney

Conference

WRF planetary boundary layer schemes for wind forecasting

2019; Wind Energy Science Conference 2019, Ireland; Seánie Griffin (Frank McDermott, Conor Sweeney)

Conference

Multivariate spatial post-processing for renewable energy forecasts

2019; European Geosciences Union General Assembly (EGU 2019), Austria; Eadaoin Doddy, Conor Sweeney, and Frank McDermott

Conference

An investigation of the spatial correlations between Euro-Atlantic atmospheric teleconnections and winter solar radiation in NW Europe

2019; European Geosciences Union General Assembly (EGU 2019), Austria; João Correia, Frank McDermott, and Conor Sweeney

Conference

Impact of WRF PBL schemes for renewable energy forecasting in Ireland

2019; European Geosciences Union General Assembly (EGU 2019), Austria; Seanie Griffin, Conor Sweeney, and Frank McDermott

Conference

An Evaluation of Integrated Cloud Condensate in the HARMONIE-AROME NWP Model

2018; European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2018 (EMS 2018), Hungary; Eadaoin Doddy, Conor Sweeney

Conference

A spatial analysis of shortwave radiation over Ireland

2018; European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018 (EGU 2018), Austria; Eadaoin Doddy, Conor Sweeney, and Frank McDermott

Conference

Regional wind-solar complementarity and atmospheric pressure patterns - a case study for Ireland & the UK

2018; European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018 (EGU 2018), Austria; Joao Correia, Frank McDermott, and Conor Sweeney

Conference

Representation of wind-solar correlations in reanalysis datasets

2018; European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018 (EGU 2018), Austria; Seanie Griffin, Conor Sweeney, and Frank McDermott

Conference

Large scale atmospheric circulation patterns and solar energy resources in the UK and Ireland

2017; EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2017, Ireland; Joao Correia, Frank McDermott and Conor Sweeney

OA

Conference

Variations in wind-solar correlations across multiple datasets

2017; EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2017, Ireland; Seanie Griffin, Conor Sweeney, and Frank McDermott

OA

Conference

An investigation of systematic errors in solar radiation in reanalysis models

2017; EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2017, Ireland; Eadaoin Doddy, Conor Sweeney, and Frank McDermott

OA

Conference

Wind / PV: errors, correlations and forecasts

2017; Wind Energy Science Conference 2017 (WESC-2017), Denmark; Conor Sweeney, Eadaoin Doddy, Seanie Griffin

Journal

A 34-year simulation of wind generation potential for Ireland and the impact of large-scale atmospheric pressure patterns

2017; Renewable Energy; Cradden, L.C., McDermott, F., Zubiate, L., Sweeney, C. and O'Malley, M.

DOI

Conference

An investigation of Systematic Errors in Solar Radiation in Reanalysis Datasets

2017; 6th National Student Chapter Conference of the UKIE Section of SIAM -the Society for Industry and Applied Mathematics, Ireland; Eadaoin Doddy, Conor Sweeney

Conference

Comparison of Correlations Between Wind and Solar Radiation

2017; 6th National Student Chapter Conference of the UKIE Section of SIAM -the Society for Industry and Applied Mathematics, Ireland; Seanie Griffin, Conor Sweeney