Natural climate variability and long-term climate change operate on timescales that exceed the c.10 day limit of NWP schemes. Such variability and long-term trends constitute important drivers of the new IESMs (see MSP1). Our goal is to de-risk these climate-related drivers on two distinct timescales, that link respectively to operational decisions (e.g. energy hedging) and system-level planning in the industry. This will also provide climate-related risk data to MSP2. On monthly to seasonal operational timescales, we will build on recent improvements in climate model skill for the intra-seasonal prediction of the NAO (Scaife et al., 2014). On longer system-level planning timescales we are concerned with decadal scale trends and the associated increased variability in climate-sensitive RE resources (e.g. spatiotemporal variations in wind, wave, solar and freshwater) that will accompany long-term climate change. These also exert demand-side impacts (e.g. requirements for space heating, cooling, water consumption) and increased probability of extremes (e.g. heatwaves, droughts, floods, cold winters) (IPCC, 2013). It is crucial to take account of the stresses imposed on integrated energy systems to ensure system resilience during and after extreme events.
|Conference||High Resolution Wind Power Models - an Irish Case Study
2018; 8th International Conference on Sustainable Energy Information Technology (SEIT), Portugal; Carroll, P., Cradden, L.C. and O hEigeartaigh, M.
|Journal||A weather regime characterisation of Irish wind generation and electricity demand in winters 2009-11
2018; Environmental Research Letters; Cradden, L.C. and McDermott, F.
|Conference||Regional wind-solar complementarity and atmospheric pressure patterns - a case study for Ireland & the UK
2018; European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018 (EGU 2018), Austria; Correia, J., McDermott, F. and Sweeney, C.
|Conference||Large scale atmospheric circulation patterns and solar energy resources in the UK and Ireland
2017; EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2017, Ireland; Correia, J., McDermott, F. and Sweeney, C.
|Conference||Characterising concurrent wind generation and electricity demand in Ireland with respect to atmospheric patterns
2017; 4th International Conference on Energy Meteorology 2017, Italy; Cradden, L.C.
|Journal||A 34-year simulation of wind generation potential for Ireland and the impact of large-scale atmospheric pressure patterns
2017; Renewable Energy; Cradden, L.C., McDermott, F., Zubiate, L., Sweeney, C. and O'Malley, M.